Research preview · open tools

Explore

The open foundations, exposed directly: the 24-state run-expectancy matrix, the empirical linear weights derived from it, park factors with their leakage rule attached, and the win-probability calibration. Everything here is computed from the admitted Retrosheet capture and hash-bound to a model release.

Run expectancy — the 24 base-out states

Bases0 out1 out2 out
Unavailable.

Empirical linear weights — run value by event kind

Each kind belongs to exactly one responsibility ledger, which is what stops a run of value from being counted twice.

EventMean run value±SEEventsLedger
Unavailable.

Park factors — and the rule that governs their use

TeamFactor (100 = neutral)Home R/GRoad R/G
Unavailable.